The Black Swan

This was an interesting book that took several months to read. If you click the title of this blog entry you can see a summary of what it is about. We have the tendency to think that the future is predictable when really many 'black swans' have changed our lives more than we realize. A few black swans are the internet, 9-11, electricity... Stuff you could never have predicted nor imagined yet they caused huge changes.

He had a discussion starting on about page 30 about 'Mediocristan' versus 'Extremistan' which was interesting. In 'Mediocristan': nonscalable, mild randomness, like an opera singer before there were recordings, a small restaurant owner can only make as much as one person can do, history crawls... In 'Extremistan': scalable, wild randomness, like today's unlimited www audience for artists, history jumps...

So what does this mean for everyday life if Nassim is right about life being unpredictable? On page 201 he starts his chapter about what to do. He suggests planning your life like a barbell; with part being safe like living debt-free and with safe savings for those bad 'black swans' that may come. Another part of your life can be prepared for those good 'black swans' by investing or doing some extremistan things that could grow exponentially. For example this year fertilizer, and shipping stocks have grown like crazy. Also, by using the internet your audience is unlimited if you have something to show or tell others.